Page 17 - Decoding Decisions ~ Making sense of the messy middle

17 CHAPTER 2 IDENTIFYING THE MESSY MIDDLE

This sequence of looking for products and then weighing options equates
to two different mental modes: exploration and evaluation. And, as it turns
out, they are the key to understanding the messy middle. Exploration is an
expansive activity, while evaluation is inherently reductive. When exploring,
we add brands, products, and category information to mental portfolios or
“consideration sets”. When evaluating, we narrow down those options.

In McKinsey’s consumer decision-making model (one of our favourite recent
5
models), these modes are combined into a single “active evaluation” phase.

However, our research suggests that they are cognitively distinct with different
reward systems and, as such, different tactics are required to connect with
consumers depending on whether they are exploring or evaluating.

The difference between giving a consumer information about a category or
product and actively closing a sale is subtle but important. In any transaction
choice is power, and consumers are now more powerful than ever before.
Sending the wrong signal at the wrong moment could be highly disruptive,

with the result that the offending brand is jettisoned from the shopper’s
consideration set.

The science behind explore and evaluate

Next we wanted to validate that explore and evaluate fit within the existing

body of behavioural science. So, we went back to our stack of books and
periodicals to see if anyone else had identified a similar pattern of behaviour.

One theory that closely matched our hypothesis is “information foraging”,
6
which describes behaviours humans exhibit to reduce energy expenditure
whilst maximising gain. Historically, this theory was derived from a food
foraging theory which helped biologists understand animals’ feeding
strategies – in the case of a predator: how much energy is required to hunt
prey versus the energy that will be gained from eating it? Applying these

theories to online behaviour could explain how we explore and evaluate: how
easy is it to find the information we need and how useful will that information
be? If it’s useful, we tend to exhaust the information at that location before
proceeding to the next. If not, we rapidly switch sources before we expend
too much energy.

5 McKinsey (2009), https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and-sales/our-insights/the-consumer-decision-journey#
6 Pirolli, P., & Card, S. (1999). Information foraging. Psychological Review, 106(4), 643–675. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.106.4.643