Page 82 - Decoding Decisions ~ Making sense of the messy middle

82 CHAPTER 4 INFLUENCING THE MESSY MIDDLE

Simulation summary

Our simulations offer a framework for decoding how decisions are made in

the messy middle. Over the course of some 310,000 simulated decisions,
we’ve seen how the behavioural biases identified in our literature review can
have a powerful effect on shopper preferences.

Before we draw conclusions, we have to bear in mind that not all of our biases
are as effective across every category. And it’s worth repeating that none
of our executions used anything other than basic copy and design, so these
results don’t speak to the power of creative to harness and enhance cognitive
biases.

But with those caveats in mind, three broad conclusions can be drawn:

1. Even a brand you’ve never heard of can disrupt

preferences in the messy middle

There’s no doubt that the results of our fictional brand tests will be surprising
to many readers. Some may even find themselves sceptical of the endeavour.
However, the results of the experiment are consistent with the premise that
behavioural biases have powerful effects on purchase decisions. In the world

of the simulation, these brands existed, supercharged with the best possible
expression of our behavioural biases. Shoppers made a choice, and while
established brands still exerted a powerful pull, the biases had the effect that
behavioural science theory said they would.

Marketing history is littered with

stories of start‑up challenger brands

who came out of nowhere to seize

substantial market share.